In 1990 he predicted that robots would beat humans at chess by 1998, it happened in 1997
By John Vibes
(INTELLIHUB) — Famous futurologist and transhumanist Ray Kurzweil predicts that robots will be smarter than humans by the year 2029. Not only that but he also predicts that by 2045 computers will be a billion times more powerful than all of the human brains on Earth. According to him human beings will also become immortal in the year 2045.
Kurzweil is known to make radical predictions like this, but many times he is actually correct. In 1990 he predicted that robots would beat humans at chess by 1998, an accomplishment made by IBM’s Deep Blue, against Garry Kasparov, in 1997.
Bill Gates has called Kurzweil “the best person I know at predicting the future of artificial intelligence”, and that may be why he was scooped up by Google in recent years and given a blank check to conduct his studies.
In a recent interview Kurzweil said that:
“My book The Age of Spiritual Machines came out in 1999 and that we had a conference of AI experts at Stanford and we took a poll by hand about when you think the Turing test would be passed. The consensus was hundreds of years. And a pretty good contingent thought that it would never be done.
“And today, I’m pretty much at the median of what AI experts think and the public is kind of with them. Because the public has seen things like Siri [the iPhone’s voice-recognition technology] where you talk to a computer, they’ve seen the Google self-driving cars. My views are not radical any more. I’ve actually stayed consistent. It’s the rest of the world that’s changing its view.”
“Computers are on the threshold of reading and understanding the semantic content of a language, but not quite at human levels. But since they can read a million times more material than humans they can make up for that with quantity. So IBM’s Watson is a pretty weak reader on each page, but it read the 200m pages of Wikipedia. And basically what I’m doing at Google is to try to go beyond what Watson could do. To do it at Google scale. Which is to say to have the computer read tens of billions of pages. Watson doesn’t understand the implications of what it’s reading. It’s doing a sort of pattern matching. It doesn’t understand that if John sold his red Volvo to Mary that involves a transaction or possession and ownership being transferred. It doesn’t understand that kind of information and so we are going to actually encode that, really try to teach it to understand the meaning of what these documents are saying.”