Political science professor Helmut Norpoth, whose election model has accurately predicted the outcome of the popular vote five times in a row, asserts that Donald Trump has an 87% chance of winning the presidency.
Appearing on Fox Business with Lou Dobbs, Norpoth said his forecast confounded the poll numbers.
“I know that if you look at the polls right now that’s not what polls are saying, but polls are how people feel today and the election is not for another two and a half months,” said the Stoney Brook University professor.
Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote for every election since 1996, including the 2000 race where Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush took the presidency.
One of the factors the model takes into account is the unlikely scenario of an incumbent party remaining in power after two terms.
The accuracy of the model built by Norpoth stands at 96.1%, and works for every single presidential election going back to 1912, with the only exception being the 1960 contest, when John F. Kennedy narrowly defeated Richard Nixon.
Norpoth’s confidence in Trump winning has slipped since February, when he predicted a 97% chance of a Trump victory, but his analysis still stands in stark contrast to the mainstream media narrative that the New York billionaire’s campaign is collapsing.
While online polls like that released by Zogby yesterday show Clinton and Trump almost tied, other polls show Hillary enjoying a significant lead.
However, accusations of bias have intensified, with one Bloomberg poll being amended to make Hillary’s victory seem inevitable by adding in her favor the votes of respondents who said they wouldn’t be voting at all.
Reuters also eliminated the choice of voting for neither candidate in its poll in order to artificially boost Hillary’s numbers.