Study Says Facebook Will Lose 80% of Users in Coming Years

A study based on data comparing Facebook with Myspace shows that in the next few years Facebook will lose most of their users

By John Vibes

(INTELLIHUB) — A new study shows that the exodus from Facebook that we have all been waiting for may be just around the corner.  Overall people are becoming dissatisfied with the surface, and are ditching it for other social networking platforms.

Facebook developed a following because it allowed people to connect with friends more easily, and due to these increased capabilities they became the dominant social network on the internet.

Over the years Facebook has become one of the most popular websites in the world, and recently the company has been taking advantage of their social network dominance.

The newest controversies surrounding Facebook have been the intentional censorship of activist profiles and the “promotional posts” scam which has cut off every single Facebook user from a vast majority of their posts.

Since these changes silently went into effect a few months ago, every single Facebook user can now only see a fraction of the stories which should be in their news feed.

For artists, activists and people with websites, there is now an option for them to promote their posts for a ridiculous fee and have more of their fans see their posts.

Many Facebook users don’t even realize that this is happening because unless you’re using the site for promotional purposes you don’t really notice.

Also, for years there have been so many rumors about Facebook charging that now when activists try to tell people about these new changes, it has turned into a “boy cried wolf scenario” and no one pays attention.

In addition to this monetizing scam there has also been an increase in censorship.  As a result, large numbers of people are abandoning the social network.

According to the study:

In this paper we have applied a modified epidemiological model to describe the adoption and abandonment dynamics of user activity of online social networks. Using publicly available Google data for search query Myspace as a case study, we showed that the traditional SIR model for modeling disease dynamics provides a poor description of the data. A 75% decrease in SSE is achieved by modifying the traditional SIR model to incorporate infectious recovery dynamics, which is a better description of OSN dynamics. Having validated the irSIR model of OSN dynamics on Google data for search query Myspace, we then applied the model to the Google data for search query Facebook. Extrapolating the best fit model into the future suggests that Facebook will undergo a rapid decline in the coming years, losing 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017.

This process has already begun, in September it was reported that 11 million users left Facebook.



[1] Epidemiological modeling of online social network dynamics

Writer Bio:

VibesJG Vibes is an investigative journalist, staff writer and editor. He is also the author of “Alchemy of the Modern Renaissance”, an 87 chapter e-book and is an artist with an established record label. Find him on his Facebook.
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